Still Soaring: How African Vultures persist under Global Change

Climate change is reshaping vulture distributions. Contraction of African vultures’ ranges under climate change have been reported in addition to escalating poisoning and persecution they already face. Within the broader global change context, shifting climates interact with other drivers such as land-use and land-cover changes, with cascading effects for the ecosystem services vultures provide. Vultures remove carrion which helps prevent zoonotic disease spread, water and land contamination. When global change drivers interact, there is a consequent mismatch between this important ecological role they play and where they can persist now and in the future. How climate change, expanding human activities from land use changes (human footprint), and increasing aridity interact will influence the future distribution of African vultures and still poorly understood. This talk presents results from my first PhD chapter, examining species‑level distribution patterns across Africa and assessing how climate change, human footprint, and aridity may reshape potential ranges in the future. I highlight patterns of distribution change such as range persistence, expansion and contraction across nine African vulture species in response to interacting global change drivers. I then outline plans for my second chapter which aims to understand individual-level movement responses within the distribution range areas identified in chapter one, sharing preliminary insights on connectivity, isolation, space and time allocation. I will conclude with implications for African vulture conservation planning including overlaps between future predicted areas, poisoning exposure, and habitat suitability losses in protected areas.